“A little over three weeks before opening, “New Moon” came on industry tracking today with a vengeance showing interest in the Stephanie Meyer’s vampire franchise hasn’t cooled whatsoever. With huge awareness already, the film has a staggering 40% plus first choice with younger women and over 15% with older women. What’s truly astounding is that older men (typically over 25) have almost as much interest as older women in seeing the sequel. For what is seen as a typically female subject matter, that’s a remarkable level of interest. To say that “Twilight’s” opening weekend number last year of $69.6 million will be surpassed by “New Moon” beginning on Nov. 20 is something of an understatement. And its domestic gross of $191 million? Don’t be surprised if it quickly gets shattered.

As for “2012,” opening a little over two weeks from now, the Roland Emmerich action flick is currently trending for an opening in the mid $40 million range. For early November, that’s nothing to sneeze at. However, with a rumored budget in the $250 million plus range “2012″ is going to have to have strong word of mouth and a lucrative Thanksgiving weekend to sail into profitability. Sony’s biggest concern? Interest among older males is the same percentage as older males for “New Moon” and it opens a week earlier. That’s got to be disconcerting for those at the Culver City studio. No one is expecting “2012″ to flop, but the company may need to rely on its excellent international distribution arm to make up the difference overseas to get the film to a “blockbuster” level. ”

Read full article HERE at Hitfix.